World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler returns to his home state of Texas as the clear favorite at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson this week, but several dark horses could challenge his quest for a first 2025 PGA Tour victory at TPC Craig Ranch.
While attention centers on the hometown favorite, three compelling underdogs have emerged as potential surprise contenders based on recent form and course history.
Stephan Jaeger (+4000) arrives with consecutive top-20 finishes at this event and improving form. His iron play currently ranks sixth in true strokes gained on approach, and despite ranking 124th off the tee recently, history suggests TPC Craig Ranch suits his driving style—he led the field in that metric at the 2024 tournament and placed fourth in 2023.
Ryo Hisatsune (+7500) brings impressive momentum with two top-5 and two top-20 results in his last five starts. The Japanese golfer has demonstrated well-rounded skills, ranking 19th in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 16th in putting among this field. His T13 finish in his 2024 Byron Nelson debut suggests comfort with the course, and his 17th place ranking in adjusted scoring average this season confirms his consistent all-around game.
Analysts at Statbet note that players with balanced statistical profiles like Hisatsune's have historically outperformed expectations on courses similar to TPC Craig Ranch, particularly when carrying positive momentum into the event.
Finnish golfer Sami Valimaki (+11000) presents perhaps the most intriguing value. With three straight top-20 finishes including a solo fourth at the Houston Open, Valimaki currently leads this field in true strokes gained on approach while ranking eighth in tee-to-green play across his recent events. With six worldwide victories already on his résumé, Valimaki's current form suggests he could be dramatically undervalued at these odds.
While Scheffler remains the man to beat, these three international players have quietly positioned themselves as legitimate threats to capture the 2025 Byron Nelson trophy.
