The PGA Championship leaderboard after Round 1 at Quail Hollow Club looks anything but predictable, creating significant value opportunities for Friday's second round action.
Rory McIlroy appears poised for improvement despite a challenging opening round. While he found just 28.6% of fairways on Thursday, McIlroy still managed to hit 11 greens in regulation with positive tee-to-green performance (+0.88). His putting struggles (-2.12 strokes) ranked him 136th in the field, but history suggests a bounce-back is likely. McIlroy entered the tournament ranked second in strokes gained off-the-tee since The Sentry, and has consistently performed well at Quail Hollow, leading the field in total strokes gained across his last five appearances.
Collin Morikawa presents another compelling opportunity after hitting 11 of 18 greens in regulation during Round 1. Though he lost strokes on approaches (-0.04) and off the tee (-0.34), Morikawa's exceptional ball-striking credentials—ranking 8th on the PGA Tour in greens in regulation percentage this season at 71.18%—suggest improvement is coming. The two-time major champion has gained strokes off-the-tee and on approach in five consecutive majors, entering this week ranked third in both metrics over his last 21 events.
According to Statbet analysis, matchup betting often provides the most consistent value in major tournaments where course-specific performance history becomes particularly significant.
The Harris English versus J.T. Poston matchup offers intriguing value. While Poston impressed in Round 1, ranking 10th in strokes gained on approach (+2.40) and ninth in putting (+2.90), maintaining such performance seems unlikely. English, despite finishing 141st in putting (-2.42), gained an impressive +3.17 strokes tee-to-green. The five-time PGA Tour winner entered the championship ranked eighth in putting performance since his January win at the Farmers, suggesting his Round 1 struggles were anomalous. English's superior major championship track record and excellent tee-to-green game on Thursday indicate potential for a strong recovery.
The latest odds show Scottie Scheffler as the clear favorite at +330, followed by Bryson DeChambeau (+1200), Tyrrell Hatton (+1600), and Jon Rahm and Jhonattan Vegas (both at +1800). Ludvig Aberg rounds out the top contenders at +2200.
