This Saturday's UFC Fight Night main event features a compelling welterweight clash as Ian Machado Garry squares off against the red-hot Carlos Prates at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City.
The 27-year-old Machado Garry enters the octagon as a slight favorite despite coming off the first defeat of his professional career. That loss, however, came against top contender Shavkat Rakhmonov in a competitive five-round affair that actually enhanced Machado Garry's reputation among MMA analysts.
Prates brings an impressive 11-fight winning streak into this contest, with knockout power that has finished 10 opponents during this run. The Brazilian has started his UFC career with a perfect 4-0 record, earning Performance of the Night bonuses in each appearance.
Despite Prates' fearsome knockout percentage, questions remain about his performance against elite competition. His most significant victory came against veteran Neil Magny, who at 37 was coming off a knockout loss himself.
Machado Garry's technical advantages could prove decisive in this matchup. His ability to control distance, utilize the clinch, and potentially exploit his grappling edge presents multiple paths to victory. According to tactical analysis from Statbet, fighters with diversified skill sets like Machado Garry typically prevail in five-round main events against predominantly striking-focused opponents.
Prates has shown vulnerability when fighters can maintain range and work against the cage, as demonstrated in his less impressive showing against Trevin Giles. Additionally, Prates hasn't experienced a five-round fight in his career and hasn't gone beyond the second round since 2019.
While Prates certainly possesses the power to end the fight with a single strike, Machado Garry's durability and well-rounded skill set make him the more likely victor in this welterweight clash between two of the division's most promising talents.
