This Saturday's UFC Fight Night co-main event features a compelling light heavyweight matchup as veteran submission ace Paul Craig attempts to halt his skid against rising prospect Rodolfo Bellato at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Craig enters this contest in desperate need of a victory, having dropped four of his last five bouts. The Scottish fighter is making his return to the light heavyweight division after an unsuccessful experiment at middleweight, where he managed just one win against Andre Muniz before suffering consecutive defeats to Brendan Allen, Caio Borralho, and most recently, Bo Nickal.
Bellato, meanwhile, looks to build momentum after fighting to a draw with Jimmy Crute in February. The Brazilian has shown impressive striking prowess in his UFC tenure, averaging over six significant strikes per minute with a dynamic, aggressive style. Prior to the Crute stalemate, Bellato had seen all three of his previous UFC appearances end via knockout, going 2-1 in those contests.
The betting lines reflect the fighters' contrasting trajectories, with Bellato installed as a substantial -450 favorite. This positioning suggests the UFC may be setting up a showcase opportunity for Bellato, while Craig serves as a veteran litmus test.
The stylistic matchup appears to favor Bellato significantly. Craig's path to victory has historically been through his dangerous submission game off his back, but his striking limitations and difficulty securing takedowns could prove problematic. According to Statbet, fighters with Craig's recent performance metrics—being outstruck 234-162 over his last six fights—typically face steep challenges against opponents with Bellato's offensive output.
Bellato's perfect takedown defense through his UFC career further complicates Craig's gameplan. The Brazilian has demonstrated not only striking power but also sound wrestling fundamentals, having secured at least one takedown in three of his four UFC appearances.
While Craig's submission threat can never be completely discounted—he has pulled off several improbable comeback victories throughout his career—the current form of both fighters points strongly toward a Bellato victory, potentially via knockout as he exploits Craig's defensive vulnerabilities on the feet.
The light heavyweight co-main event takes place this Saturday, May 17, as part of the UFC Fight Night card from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.
