The Minnesota Twins return home hoping to jumpstart their season as they welcome the surging New York Mets for a three-game series beginning Monday night at Target Field.
Both clubs have been involved in pitcher-friendly contests this season, with offense at a premium. The Mets have participated in 15 games where the final score stayed under the projected total in 11 of them, while Minnesota has seen six of their last seven contests finish below the expected run production.
The Twins' bats have been particularly cold to start the campaign, ranking 24th in MLB with just 3.44 runs per game and a .613 OPS that places them 26th league-wide. The Mets have fared slightly better offensively, averaging 4.07 runs per contest with a .668 OPS.
Monday's series opener features a compelling pitching matchup that should continue the low-scoring trend. Minnesota's Joe Ryan enters with impressive early-season numbers - a 2.65 ERA and a perfect control record with zero walks issued. Ryan's microscopic 0.706 WHIP follows his excellent 0.985 mark from last season, demonstrating his elite ability to keep runners off base.
According to data from Statbet, pitching matchups featuring starters with sub-3.00 ERAs in April have historically produced under-total results in 63% of games.
The Mets counter with Clay Holmes, the former Yankees closer who has transitioned to a starting role this season for the first time since 2018. While his 4.30 ERA appears pedestrian, his 2.32 FIP suggests he's pitched better than the results indicate. Holmes has been racking up strikeouts at an impressive clip of 12.3 per nine innings, including 10 punchouts in his last outing against Miami.
New York enters the series with momentum, having won eight of their last ten games overall, while the Twins are looking to gain traction after a sluggish offensive start to 2025.
With cool temperatures expected and light rain in the forecast, conditions appear favorable for another low-scoring affair between these cross-conference opponents.
