The race for baseball's premier pitching honor is intensifying as we move deeper into the 2025 MLB season, with compelling storylines emerging in both leagues.
In the National League, a fascinating duel has developed between Pirates sensation Paul Skenes and Dodgers star Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The two aces are virtually inseparable in the odds, with Yamamoto's recent performances drawing him even with the early frontrunner Skenes at several sportsbooks.
Skenes, who had been nearly untouchable through his first six starts—allowing just one home run across 47 2/3 innings—showed his first signs of vulnerability against the Cubs. The rookie surrendered three homers while posting season-lows with just two strikeouts and a season-high four walks.
Meanwhile, Yamamoto continues to dazzle with his remarkable 0.90 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through 40 innings. The Dodgers right-hander has accumulated 49 strikeouts against elite competition, most recently shutting down the Atlanta Braves with six scoreless innings of one-hit ball. His 4-2 record seems almost unjust given his dominance, highlighting the often misleading nature of win-loss statistics for pitchers.
San Francisco's Logan Webb has quietly entered the conversation as well. Though a longshot compared to the frontrunners, Webb has been nearly perfect at Oracle Park this season, allowing just one run across 20 1/3 innings in his three home starts.
Over in the American League, Tigers' Tarik Skubal maintains a slight advantage over Red Sox hurler Garrett Crochet, but the most intriguing development might be Jacob deGrom's resurgence. The veteran recently became the fastest pitcher in MLB history to reach 1,700 strikeouts, achieving the milestone in just 225 games.
After a bumpy start to the season where he allowed seven earned runs in his first two April appearances, deGrom has found his rhythm. The right-hander has surrendered just four total runs across 23 1/3 innings in his last four starts. While his strikeout numbers aren't quite reaching the dominant levels of his peak years, that may be by design as he carefully manages his workload following injury concerns.
According to data from Statbet, deGrom's current form suggests he could be significantly undervalued at +1600 odds, especially if he increases his intensity in the second half of the season.
Betting trends reveal Paul Skenes drawing the highest percentage of tickets (10%) in the NL race, while holding 15% of the total handle. In the AL, Garrett Crochet leads with 9.3% of tickets and 13.5% of the handle, though Tarik Skubal remains close behind.
With four months of baseball still to play, these races remain fluid. Yamamoto's historically low ERA seems unsustainable, and Skenes has shown at least one moment of vulnerability. Meanwhile, deGrom's trajectory bears watching as he potentially builds toward a vintage second-half performance that could reshape the AL landscape.
The coming weeks will be crucial as these elite arms continue their pursuit of one of baseball's most prestigious individual honors.
