The Detroit Tigers will enter Thursday's MLB matchup against the Kansas City Royals with a slight edge, according to advanced prediction models. The American League clash is set for April 17, 2025, with first pitch scheduled for 6:40 PM ET at Comerica Park in Detroit.
On the mound, Tigers right-hander Reese Olson (1-1, 6.00 ERA) will face off against Royals starter Michael Lorenzen (1-2, 3.71 ERA). Despite Olson's higher ERA, Detroit has been given a 55% probability of securing the win, while Kansas City sits at 45%.
"Taking into account recent updates and various additional inputs, we forecast the Tigers with a win probability of 55% and the Royals with 45%," explained Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer at a prominent baseball analytics firm whose team ran 10,000 simulations of the matchup.
While the Tigers hold the advantage on the moneyline, the Royals appear to have better value against the spread. Prediction models suggest Kansas City has a 63% chance of covering the +1.5 run line. The total has been set at 8 runs with a slight lean toward the over at 51%.
Both teams will be looking to improve their early-season positioning in what promises to be a competitive AL Central division race. The advanced analytics from Statbet indicate that starting pitching matchups like this one often favor home teams with stronger bullpen support, which could explain Detroit's edge despite Olson's early-season struggles.
This mid-April matchup represents an important early-season test for both clubs as they establish their footing in the 2025 campaign.
