The Tampa Bay Rays look to continue their dominance over the Arizona Diamondbacks as the teams face off tonight in Arizona. The Rays, who secured a victory in yesterday's matchup, now aim for their seventh win in eight meetings against the Diamondbacks.
The pitching matchup features a fascinating contrast between two starters heading in opposite directions. Tampa Bay sends Drew Rasmussen to the mound, who has been nothing short of phenomenal this season. Rasmussen enters the game with an incredible sub-zero ERA and has already proven himself against strong lineups, holding both the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers to just two earned runs combined in over ten innings of work.
On the other side, Arizona counters with Corbin Burnes, who despite being priced in betting markets like the Cy Young winner he once was in 2021, has struggled considerably this season. Burnes brings concerning numbers into tonight's contest: a 1.41 WHIP, 4.99 expected ERA, and .465 expected slugging percentage.
The Rays' offense appears well-positioned to take advantage of Burnes' struggles. Tampa Bay has established itself as one of baseball's better contact teams, boasting the sixth-lowest whiff rate in MLB. Their improving barrel rate also poses a significant threat to Burnes, who currently ranks in just the 8th percentile in barrel rate allowed.
According to Statbet analysis, the pitching matchup heavily favors Tampa Bay, with Rasmussen's current form suggesting he should handle Arizona's lineup despite their above-average plate discipline.
For the Diamondbacks to have success, they'll need to overcome Rasmussen's excellent command and avoid chasing pitches outside the zone. Key players to watch include Danny Jansen, who has just a 19% ground-ball rate over his last ten games, potentially giving him an advantage against Burnes' ground-ball tendencies.
While Arizona has been profitable against the run line recently (covering in 12 of their last 21 games for a 14% ROI), the pitching matchup suggests the Rays have a strong opportunity to secure another victory in this series as slight underdogs on the moneyline.
