Monday's MLB slate offers bettors a full menu of games with multiple pitching matchups worth analyzing for potential value. With most starters now making their third appearance of the season, patterns are emerging that savvy bettors can leverage.
In Minneapolis, Twins ace Joe Ryan presents an intriguing under 4.5 hits allowed opportunity against the struggling Mets. Ryan's most recent outing was a masterful seven-inning shutout performance against Kansas City, allowing just two hits. The Mets' offense ranks a disappointing 24th in the league with a collective .215 batting average, creating favorable conditions for Ryan at Target Field, where his home statistics have historically outperformed his road numbers. Additionally, projected rain and cold weather could limit his pitch count, further supporting the under.
Out west, Dodgers right-hander Dustin May faces the Colorado Rockies with his strikeout total set at 5.5. Despite the seemingly favorable matchup, May's recent performance suggests value on the under. He managed just one strikeout in his last start against Washington (typically a favorable strikeout matchup) and has posted modest 16% strikeout and 7.7% swing-and-miss rates. While May has been effective at limiting hits, his career average of roughly a strikeout per inning combined with likely pitch count limitations makes reaching six strikeouts challenging.
According to Statbet analytical models, pitchers coming off season-best performances often see statistical regression in subsequent starts, particularly when weather conditions are less than ideal.
The final highlighted matchup features Yankees starter Carlos Carrasco against Kansas City. The veteran's strikeout prop sits at 3.5, but the under appears promising given his recent struggles. Carrasco lasted just 59 pitches in his previous start while surrendering three home runs, raising serious questions about his longevity in the Yankees rotation. With hard contact becoming increasingly problematic for the right-hander, there's significant risk he won't pitch deep enough into the game to accumulate four strikeouts.
As Monday's first pitches approach, these under propositions offer compelling value for bettors looking to capitalize on early-season pitching trends.
