Friday night baseball often delivers electrifying moments, particularly when power hitters connect for home runs. Looking at tonight's MLB matchups, three sluggers stand out as particularly promising candidates to clear the fences on April 25.
Toronto's Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could be on the verge of a power breakthrough at Yankee Stadium, where he's historically thrived with 14 career homers – his highest total in any visiting ballpark. Facing Carlos Carrasco, who's struggled significantly this season with a 5.14 expected ERA and ranks poorly in whiff rate (8th percentile) and barrel rate (14th percentile), Vladdy has an excellent opportunity to add to his tally. Despite having just one home run this season, Guerrero's underlying metrics – including 92nd percentile rankings in expected batting average and hard-hit percentage – suggest a power surge is imminent.
When the Mets visit Washington tonight, keep an eye on Brandon Nimmo. While Nationals Park isn't typically considered a hitter's paradise, tonight's forecast calls for 10-12 mph winds blowing toward left-center, creating favorable conditions for power hitters. Nationals starter Jake Irvin brings a respectable 3.86 ERA but his advanced metrics tell a different story – a concerning 5.01 expected ERA and bottom-quartile rankings in expected slugging percentage and barrel rate. Nimmo, despite his current .196 batting average, boasts a .450 expected slugging percentage (61st percentile) and an impressive 90th percentile hard-hit rate. He's also had previous success against Irvin with a .560 expected slugging in their matchups.
According to batting trend analysis from Statbet, these types of statistical mismatches often lead to breakthrough performances, particularly for hitters like Nimmo who are performing better than their surface numbers suggest.
The Seattle Mariners' Jorge Polanco appears to have rediscovered his power stroke in 2025 after a down 2024 season. Currently hitting .351 with a .963 OPS and four home runs, Polanco's advanced metrics are even more impressive – 80th percentile barrel rate, 84th percentile hard-hit percentage, and a remarkable 100th percentile expected batting average. He'll face Miami's struggling Cal Quantrill, who brings a concerning 7.01 expected ERA and .529 expected slugging percentage into tonight's contest. Though Quantrill has only surrendered two homers this season, his tendency to allow hard contact suggests that number could increase tonight.
While these three hitters offer intriguing power potential tonight, it's worth noting that the most popular home run bets for today's games include Yankees' Aaron Judge (+170), Phillies' Kyle Schwarber (+320), and Yankees' Ben Rice (+500).
