The Atlanta Braves' bats have finally awakened after a slow start to the 2024 season, just as they prepare to face the Arizona Diamondbacks with former Cy Young winner Chris Sale on the mound. After an exceptional 2023 campaign, Sale has struggled significantly this season, posting a concerning 6.57 ERA and allowing opponents to hit .313 through his first five starts.
This matchup highlights one of Friday's most intriguing first-inning scenarios. The Braves rank second in the majors with an .844 OPS over the past week, while the Diamondbacks are third in MLB with a .776 OPS and score in the first inning 40% of the time.
On the other side, Arizona's Zac Gallen hasn't fared much better this season. The Diamondbacks starter currently holds a 5.60 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP across five starts. Particularly concerning is Gallen's 10.80 ERA in the first two innings, where opposing batters are hitting .333 against him. With winds blowing toward the outfield at 11 mph, early scoring seems highly probable.
According to Statbet analysis, pitchers who struggle early like Gallen typically face more difficulty when wind conditions favor hitters, as will be the case in this matchup.
Elsewhere in MLB action, the Seattle Mariners host the Miami Marlins in what could be a low-scoring first inning. Despite scoring in the opening frame 40% of the time overall (third-highest in MLB), Seattle's rate drops dramatically to just 15.4% at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, where the team's OPS sits at a meager .623.
Marlins starter Cal Quantrill brings an alarming 8.47 ERA into the contest, but interestingly has not allowed any first-inning runs through four starts this season. Seattle counters with ace Logan Gilbert, who boasts a 2.63 ERA and 2.47 expected ERA through five starts in 2024.
The Texas Rangers visit the San Francisco Giants in another game projected for early scoring. Justin Verlander continues to show signs of decline at 42 years old, carrying a 5.47 ERA through five starts with San Francisco. The Rangers' lineup appears poised for a breakout despite ranking just 23rd in OPS (.660), as their underlying metrics (fifth in barrel rate, sixth in exit velocity) suggest positive regression is imminent.
Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi (2.64 ERA) faces potential negative regression with a much higher 4.08 expected ERA, while the Giants maintain a solid .725 OPS at home. With outward-blowing winds at Oracle Park, conditions favor early offense in this matchup as well.
