Friday's full slate of MLB action offers bettors numerous opportunities to capitalize on pitcher prop markets. After a successful 2-1 night recently, here are three compelling pitcher propositions worth considering for today's games.
In Kansas City, Royals starter Seth Lugo presents an intriguing strikeout opportunity against the Houston Astros. Despite recording just 21 strikeouts across 30 innings this season, Lugo's Over 4.5 strikeouts at +130 offers significant value. The projected extended workload (potentially over 18 outs) combined with facing an Astros lineup that ranks below average in strikeout percentage makes this an attractive play. Lugo has exceeded this strikeout total in two of his last three starts and historically averages more punchouts than innings pitched since 2019.
The Baltimore Orioles will send Brandon Young to the mound for just his second MLB start as they navigate pitching staff shortages. Young's Under 4.5 hits allowed at even money deserves attention considering his limited workload potential. In his MLB debut, he threw just 81 pitches, and his Triple-A history suggests he's not conditioned for extended outings. Additionally, Statbet analysis shows that pitchers making their second career start often perform better with command issues than in their debuts, making the under on hits particularly appealing here. Weather concerns also favor the under, with potential rain delays in the forecast.
Perhaps the most intriguing proposition involves Pittsburgh's phenom Paul Skenes in his marquee matchup against Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Dodgers. Despite Skenes clearing the 17.5 outs barrier in four consecutive starts, the Under at +150 presents value against Los Angeles' potent offense. Several factors support this position: Skenes is coming off a season-high 103 pitch outing, his strikeout rate has declined from 33% to 25%, and his fastball velocity has dipped by approximately one mph. Facing the Dodgers represents a significant step up in competition compared to his recent opponents, and with 10-mph winds blowing out to right-center field, conditions appear favorable for the Los Angeles offense to drive up his pitch count early.
