The New York Mets are expected to have the upper hand when they face the Washington Nationals in Friday's MLB showdown at Nationals Park, according to the latest predictions. The first pitch is scheduled for 6:45 PM ET in what promises to be an intriguing pitching matchup.
The Nationals will send right-hander Jake Irvin to the mound, who brings a perfect 2-0 record with a 3.68 ERA into this contest. Meanwhile, the Mets counter with Kodai Senga, who has been impressive this season with a 3-1 record and a remarkable 0.79 ERA.
Advanced analytics give the Mets a 58% probability of victory, while the Nationals stand at 42%. This assessment comes after extensive simulations of the matchup run 10,000 times with the latest available data.
"After computing the latest updates and thousands of other inputs, we predict the Mets' chance of winning is 58%, while the Nationals' is 42%," explained Nick Slade, who oversees the predictive model.
Analysts at Statbet have highlighted Senga's dominant early-season form as a key factor in the Mets' favorable outlook for this matchup.
Run line calculations suggest a closer contest than the straight win probability indicates, with Washington (+1.5) given a 51% chance to cover. The total runs prediction leans toward the over, with a 55% likelihood of exceeding the 8.5 run mark.
Both teams will be looking to gain momentum in the early part of the 2025 season, with this Friday evening clash potentially serving as a statement game for either side.
