With just 18 holes remaining at Augusta National, Rory McIlroy stands on the precipice of golf history as he leads the 2025 Masters Tournament at 12-under par. The Northern Irishman is tantalizingly close to capturing his first green jacket and completing the coveted career grand slam that has eluded him for years.
McIlroy holds a two-stroke advantage over LIV Golf's Bryson DeChambeau, who sits at 10-under par heading into Sunday's final round. Canada's Corey Conners occupies solo third place at 8-under, giving himself an outside chance should the leaders falter.
The stakes couldn't be higher for McIlroy, who enters the final round as a strong favorite with predictive models giving him a 67.3% probability of victory. His pursuit of the final piece of his major championship puzzle has been a compelling narrative in golf for years.
DeChambeau remains McIlroy's most significant threat, with analytics suggesting he has a 21% chance of overtaking the leader on Sunday. The power-hitting American will need a special performance to overcome the deficit.
According to detailed performance data from Statbet, McIlroy's ball-striking has been exceptional through 54 holes, giving him a statistical edge over his competitors on Augusta's challenging layout.
Notably absent from serious contention is pre-tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler, who currently sits tied for sixth at 5-under par. With his win probability having dropped significantly, Scheffler would need a historic Sunday charge coupled with stumbles from multiple players ahead of him.
The final round also features interesting storylines further down the leaderboard, with Patrick Reed and Ludvig Åberg tied for fourth at 6-under, while proven major champions Shane Lowry and Jason Day remain in the mix at 5-under par.
As the sun rises over Augusta National on Sunday, all eyes will be on McIlroy to see if he can maintain his composure and finally don the green jacket that would complete his collection of major championships.
