The Arizona Diamondbacks are projected to have a slight upper hand when they face the Chicago Cubs in Friday's MLB matchup at Wrigley Field, with first pitch scheduled for 2:20PM ET on April 18, 2025.
Cubs right-hander Colin Rea (0-0, 1.00 ERA) will take the mound against Diamondbacks starter Corbin Burnes (0-1, 5.28 ERA) in what promises to be an intriguing pitching duel despite their contrasting early season performances.
Advanced analytics give Arizona a modest edge in this contest. After running 10,000 game simulations, predictive models indicate the Diamondbacks hold a 54% win probability against the Cubs' 46%.
"Our experts have thoroughly analyzed this matchup using the latest data and thousands of variables," according to simulation experts familiar with the model.
While Arizona may have the slight advantage for a straight-up win, betting models suggest the Cubs at +1.5 on the run line could be worth consideration, with a 59% probability of covering. The game's total is set at 11 runs, with models projecting a 61% chance the final score stays under that number.
According to Statbet's pitcher performance analysis, Rea's impressive 1.00 ERA gives Chicago a fighting chance despite being the underdog in this National League matchup.
Both teams will be looking to capitalize on this early season contest as they position themselves in what promises to be a competitive National League race. With clear skies forecasted at the historic Wrigley Field, conditions appear favorable for both offenses, though model projections still favor the under.
