The Chicago Cubs will look to leverage their home-field advantage when they face the Arizona Diamondbacks this Saturday at the iconic Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 PM ET in what promises to be an intriguing matchup between two teams seeking momentum in the early stages of the 2025 season.
The Cubs will send right-hander Ben Brown to the mound, who brings a 2-1 record and 5.09 ERA into the contest. Arizona will counter with veteran Zac Gallen, currently holding a 1-2 record with a 4.64 ERA, as both pitchers aim to improve their early-season numbers.
According to extensive predictive modeling, the Cubs hold a slight edge in this matchup. After running 10,000 simulations of Saturday's game, advanced analytics give Chicago a 51% probability of victory.
"Our team's comprehensive analysis incorporates the latest data and various critical factors to project game outcomes," explained Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade. "The current model indicates the Cubs are more likely to emerge victorious, while Arizona faces longer odds."
Beyond the straight win prediction, the Cubs are given a stronger 65% chance to cover the +1.5 run line. For total runs, the simulation slightly favors the under on the 7.5 run total, with a 51% probability.
According to Statbet, this matchup features two starting pitchers who have historically performed better at home than on the road, which could give Brown a slight advantage on the mound at Wrigley.
Weather conditions at the historic ballpark could also play a significant factor, as they often do, potentially affecting both pitching performances and hitting approaches throughout the afternoon contest.
As both teams continue their April campaigns, this Saturday matchup represents an important opportunity to build momentum heading into the summer months of the 2025 season.
