UFC 315 is heating up as former champion Jose Aldo prepares to face hometown fighter Aiemann Zahabi on the main card in Montreal, Quebec on May 10. Despite Aldo's legendary status, betting markets suggest this could be a closer contest than many expect.
Ado enters as the -190 favorite against Canadian Zahabi, who sits as a +160 underdog. While these odds have remained stable approaching fight night, there are legitimate questions about whether the 38-year-old Brazilian can still deliver at the highest level.
Despite Aldo's unparalleled takedown defense and technical striking abilities, age appears to be catching up with the veteran. His explosiveness has noticeably diminished, though his fight IQ remains elite. This matchup is widely expected to go the distance, with -300 odds on the fight reaching the judges' scorecards.
Zahabi, meanwhile, enters on an impressive five-fight winning streak, including a significant upset victory over Javid Basharat in March 2024. His 71% strike defense outperforms Aldo's 60%, which could prove decisive in what projects to be a stand-up battle.
Both fighters have similar striking output rates (Aldo at 3.62 significant strikes per minute versus Zahabi's 4.06), but the Canadian's recent form suggests he may have the edge in this hometown appearance.
According to Statbet analysis of recent UFC upsets, fighters competing in their home country have won as underdogs 27% more frequently than in neutral territories, giving Zahabi's chances an additional statistical boost beyond the betting lines.
With this contest looking almost certain to reach the scorecards, fans should expect a tactical striking affair where volume and defense may ultimately determine the winner. For Aldo, it's another opportunity to prove his longevity against a surging opponent, while Zahabi aims to add the most prestigious name yet to his growing resume.
