Jannik Sinner enters Friday's French Open semifinal as the clear favorite against tennis legend Novak Djokovic, according to sophisticated prediction models that give the Italian a 72% chance of victory.
"Employing the latest data, we simulated Friday's Sinner-Djokovic match 10,000 times," said Dimers data analyst Greg Butyn. "After computing the latest updates and thousands of other inputs, we predict Jannik Sinner's chance of winning is 72%, while Novak Djokovic's is 28%."
The high-stakes semifinal clash is scheduled for June 6 at 1:00 PM ET, with both players fighting for a spot in the French Open 2025 final. Sinner's dominance extends to set predictions as well - he's given a 64% probability of claiming the opening set.
Interestingly, this statistical advantage represents a significant shift in the tennis landscape. Djokovic, long considered nearly unbeatable in Grand Slam semifinals, now finds himself as a substantial underdog against the rising Italian star.
The matchup has generated considerable interest in betting markets, with oddsmakers adjusting their lines to reflect Sinner's favored status. Most betting analysis suggests the moneyline offers the biggest edge for those willing to back the statistical models.
Worth noting, these predictions come from the same model that has successfully forecast outcomes throughout the tournament, using machine learning and extensive data analysis across 10,000 simulation runs.
Can Djokovic defy the odds and prove the algorithms wrong? The 2025 French Open semifinal promises to deliver answers when these tennis titans meet on the clay courts of Roland Garros.
