The upcoming UFC Des Moines event in Iowa on May 3 features a high-stakes bantamweight clash that has raised eyebrows among betting analysts due to its surprisingly wide odds spread.
Cory Sandhagen has been installed as a substantial -520 favorite against Deiveson Figueiredo, who sits as a +350 underdog. These numbers have many questioning whether the gap accurately reflects the skill differential between these elite 135-pound contenders.
This five-round main event pits two fighters who are widely considered to be in title contention territory, with the winner potentially positioning themselves for a championship opportunity. At 33, Sandhagen remains in his prime, coming off a competitive showing against the highly-touted Umar Nurmagomedov. For Figueiredo, this represents another opportunity to prove his worth in the bantamweight division after a solid but ultimately unsuccessful outing against Petr Yan last November.
Despite the lopsided odds, this matchup presents intriguing tactical dimensions. Figueiredo's path to victory likely involves leveraging his wrestling ability and physical strength - attributes he flashed early against Yan before fading in later rounds. Meanwhile, Sandhagen's height and reach advantages make him particularly dangerous in prolonged striking exchanges.
According to Statbet's fight analysis, bantamweight contests that go the distance typically favor technical strikers with reach advantages, giving Sandhagen a statistical edge in this matchup.
For those looking to place wagers, the most probable outcome appears to be Sandhagen winning by decision (-150), given his volume-based approach and Figueiredo's demonstrated durability. Neither fighter is particularly known for finishing opponents at this elite level, suggesting this contest could utilize the full 25 minutes allocated.
While Sandhagen should emerge victorious, the current betting line may present value for those willing to back Figueiredo at his underdog price, especially considering the competitive nature of the bantamweight division's upper echelon.
