As UFC Fight Night approaches on May 3, all eyes are on the main event between bantamweight contenders Cory Sandhagen and Deiveson Figueiredo. Despite being separated by just one ranking position, with Figueiredo at No. 5 and Sandhagen at No. 4, the betting odds reveal a stark contrast in expectations, installing Sandhagen as a substantial -525 favorite over the +365 underdog Figueiredo.
Both fighters enter the octagon with identical 3-1 records in their last four appearances. Figueiredo, a former flyweight champion who transitioned to bantamweight in 2023, has collected victories against Rob Font, Cody Garbrandt, and Marlon Vera before suffering a decisive decision loss to Petr Yan last November. Meanwhile, Sandhagen's only recent setback came in August when Umar Nurmagomedov defeated him by decision.
At 37, Figueiredo finds himself in a challenging position. While he dominated the flyweight division with his impressive power, those advantages have diminished since moving up to bantamweight. According to analytical data from Statbet, fighters in lower weight classes typically experience significant performance declines when their speed and durability begin to wane with age.
Sandhagen, four years younger at 33, brings superior reach, speed, and a more diverse striking arsenal into this clash. His UFC defeats have exclusively come against elite competition at the top of the division, a tier that Figueiredo hasn't quite reached at bantamweight.
The fight presents an interesting stylistic matchup. Figueiredo's reduced finishing capability at 135 pounds is offset by improved durability now that he's no longer cutting to 125. Three of his four bantamweight bouts have gone to the judges, with only glass-chinned Garbrandt failing to hear the final bell. Similarly, five of Sandhagen's last six contests required judicial intervention.
A compelling factor in this matchup is striking volume. In his loss to Yan, Figueiredo was significantly outlanded 121-53 in significant strikes. With Sandhagen's higher output and superior footwork, the smart money points toward him outworking Figueiredo over five rounds for a unanimous decision victory.
