Andrew Vaughn enters tonight's game against the Pittsburgh Pirates with impressive momentum, having smashed five home runs in his last 14 games. The Milwaukee Brewers slugger will look to continue his hot streak as his team hosts the opening matchup of a three-game series at American Family Field.
The Brewers' offensive firepower has been remarkable lately. Since July, they've claimed the top spot in nearly every major hitting category across the league. Not just a summer fluke, either — Milwaukee ranks among the top four teams in runs per game, hits per game, batting average, and on-base percentage for the entire season.
They'll face Andrew Heaney, who brings a concerning 5-9 record with a 4.77 ERA to the mound for the Pirates. The underlying metrics look even worse for the left-hander, with a 5.42 expected ERA and bottom-fifth rankings in critical areas like strikeout rate and hard-hit rate.
Betting odds reflect this mismatch, with the Brewers installed as -205 favorites on the moneyline, while Pittsburgh sits at +170 underdogs.
Do the Pirates have any hope? Well, their lineup might actually find success against Jose Quintana. Current Pirates batters collectively boast a .318 expected batting average against the Milwaukee lefty. Tommy Pham, in particular, has dominated Quintana historically across 23 plate appearances with an eye-popping .401 expected batting average.
Recent trends suggest runs could pile up tonight. The over has hit in eight of Milwaukee's last ten games, and with both pitchers showing vulnerability, the 8.5 run total might indeed prove too conservative.
Can either starter defy their troubling statistics and deliver a quality outing? We'll find out when first pitch flies tonight at American Family Field.
