Rebecca Sramkova enters her opening round match against McCartney Kessler at the WTA Rome event as the slight favorite according to advanced analytics. The pair will face off in the round of 128 on Tuesday, May 6, 2025, with first serve scheduled for 9:00 AM ET.
Data science has become increasingly influential in tennis prediction, and this matchup is no exception. A comprehensive analysis involving 10,000 match simulations gives Sramkova a 56% probability of advancing to the second round.
"We have analyzed the latest data and conducted 10,000 simulations for Tuesday's Sramkova-Kessler match," explained data analyst Greg Butyn. "By incorporating recent updates and various factors, our prediction shows Rebecca Sramkova with a win probability of 56%, compared to 44% for McCartney Kessler."
The detailed breakdown shows Sramkova also holds a slight edge in first-set winning probability at 55%, suggesting a potentially competitive opening set between the competitors.
According to Statbet analytics, women's tennis matches at the Italian Open historically feature higher-than-average tiebreak percentages compared to other clay court tournaments, indicating we might see extended sets in this encounter.
This match represents an early opportunity for both players to make their mark at one of the premier clay court events on the WTA calendar. With the match scheduled early in the tournament, the winner will have valuable recovery time before facing their second-round opponent.
As the Italian Open gets underway, this Sramkova-Kessler clash may set the tone for first-round matches to follow, with analytics suggesting a competitive but ultimately favorable outcome for Sramkova.
